Economic Directions – Winter 2019

Check out the latest economic trends at a glance.

Economic growth Canada’s economic growth has been stronger than expected this year, and is predicted to grow by 2.1 per cent in 2018 and 2019 before slowing to 1.9 per cent in 2020. There continues to be a risk that US President Trump will escalate a trade war with China, which would have a negative impact on both US and world economic growth projections.
Jobs The unemployment rate hit a 40 year low in 2018, staying between 5.8 per cent and 6.0 per cent throughout the year. Job growth is expected to be slightly slower in 2019.
Wages Average wage adjustments in collective agreements were 1.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2018, lagging behind overall wage growth which was 2.3 per cent.
Inflation Inflation is expected to remain close to 2.0 per cent throughout 2019 and 2020.
Interest rates The Bank of Canada raised its key lending rate to 1.75 per cent in October 2018, the third increase in 2018. The bank is expected to increase rates up to three times over the course of 2019, but how quickly it does so may depend on the health of Alberta’s oil sector. Raising rates too quickly could worsen the situation the industry is already facing lagging investment and low prices.


Source: CUPE National